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How to know when it is the best time to SELL and to BUY Property

Written on the 19 June 2015 by James Cagney

How to know when it is the best time to SELL and to BUY property?

To understand this I will need to give you a brief account of my experience in real estate. I started  selling Australian real estate in 1996 when I was in South Africa. I introduced  a local Queensland real estate agent  to my  clients who were migrating to Australia.  Most of these properties were situated on the Gold Coast in Queensland .My family and I migrated to Australia in 1998 and in 2003 we moved from Sydney to the Gold Coast. I took up a position selling property on the Gold Coast for a real estate agency located in Surfers Paradise. Over the next 5 years I sold and  invested in property on the Gold Coast.

Being a naive investor I thought the boom on the Gold Coast would never end. Unfortunately the Global Financial Crises (GFC) in 2008 brought the boom to an abrupt halt as Australians put holidays on the back burner. In addition, the construction of the Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) plants in Gladstone started and many of the families on the Gold Coast moved to Gladstone and Rockhampton. This was great for the Central Queensland property market but brought the Gold Coast market to its knees. To top it all the high Australian dollar made overseas travel more affordable than holidaying on the Gold Coast and the property market has remained in the doldrums since 2008.

In 2009  I started selling  properties where the boom was happening i.e. in Gladstone,  Rockhampton and Townsville. This is where the people were gainfully employed and the property market was booming.  In 2014 to my dismay the market started to wane prompted by two things - the "Construction Phase" of the first LNG plant ended and property developers and builders over supplying the market. Prices and rent began to drop and I was left scratching my head again wondering why it happened so quickly.

I still did not fully understand property cycles but I realized that the property market was not a smooth curve, which was the accepted belief at the time. I realized that there were three separate and distinctive phases in the property market i.e. The "Rapid Growth" , the "Correction" and the "Stabilisation" phase. It all fell into place when I came across "The Cycle of Market Emotions" published  by the Russell Group. This was a cycle of what emotions people go through during the share market cycle. I merged that with my model of the property cycle and Eureka I had it - I understood the property market at last. I have kept this discovery the "Best kept Secret:" for over two years only sharing it with my clients. 

For example, the last "Rapid Growth" phase in the Actual property Cycle ended on the Gold Coast in 2007/8. Many property owners who purchased on the Gold Coast from 2002 to 2008  have been waiting 10  years and more for the market to come out of the "Correction" and "Stabilisation" phases and move back into the "Rapid Growth" phase. Most property investors do not understand how the actual property cycle works and this is your opportunity to find the secret.  I have not published this model previously because I only wanted to share this with my property investors. However, in keeping with the objectives of the Australian  Investment Property Network (AIPN) of "Sharing" and "Mentoring" I have decided to release it to the public. Click >>> HERE to find out more about the AIPN and how you can benefit by joining.. If I had known how the property market actually worked I would have made much more money as an investor over the past 12 years. Of course hind-sight is 20/20 vision and now you have the benefit my experience and knowledge.  So if you want to know when to buy and sell property by using the Property Cycles and Market Emotions model click >>>>HERE now and discover the best kept secret.

The model may look complicated but you need to understand that property moves along the cycle. Properties go through all three phases over a 7 to 12 year period depending if they are located in cities or in regional areas. The big mistake most people make is they buy property in the same area, where they live so they can "feel and touch it" their properties are in the same property cycle. People buy through "Emotion" and justify it "Logically" and therefore and end up justifying their bad decision.  The old adage "You never put all your eggs in one basket" is especially true with property. When you diversify you must have properties spread though out the cycles to have a balanced portfolio.

If you buy property when the market is in "Excitement, Thrill and Euphoria" (when everyone else is buying and making money) you may have to wait 7 to 12 years for the market to the Rapid Growth phase.  I advise my clients to buy property when the market is coming out of the "Depression" period and to look where there is "Hope" on the horizon. The Gold Coast for example has the Commonwealth Games in 2018 and the construction phase for this is underway. In addition, many of the Developers of high-rise apartments stopped building on the Gold Coast in 2008. This was not good for employment and growth at the time but it is the reason why the market is starting to boom because of a lack of supply (supply vs demand) and a good time to buy or sell.

Using the "Properly Cycle & Cycle of Emotions" model buyers and vendors can estimate  where the market is in the cycle and where the market is likely to go so they can price their property accordingly. Vendors and buyers are now in control and not the real estate agents.  If you want to know  about the dirty tactics and games real estate agents play to get you to list your property and buy property click>>>>HERE. To go directly to the information click on the heading "Do you want to sell your property for a healthy profit or do you want to make real estate agents rich".      

There are other factors that affect the property market like the "Golden Circle" and the "Construction and Maintenance Phases". James Cagney will be happy to explain how these also affect the property market by clicking >>>>>HERE.

Now you know the secret when to BUY and when to SELL property!

If you want to buy or sell a property please contact James Cagney by clicking>>>>HERE. . James will give you a property appraisal based on sound research and his knowledge and experience of the property market. To find out more about this "Property Appraisal" go to his website at www.jamescagney.com.au and go to the 'Property" page or simply click >>>HERE.. To go directly to the information click on the heading "Do you want to sell your property for a healthy profit or do you want to make real estate agents rich".


Author: James Cagney
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